September 22, 2014
In this final installment of our series of blogs reviewing sales activity and pricing trends in nine cities in Southwest Riverside County, we’ll focus on the cities of Hemet and San Jacinto.
This is the same paragraph we’ve used in each of the preceding blogs. It contains an explanation of how to read the data tables and graphs, and if you’ve read it before, or if you know how to read data tables and graphs, you can skip it. The data table contains just four lines of numbers. The top two lines are the average selling price of all the homes that sold in Hemet during a particular month in one of two consecutive years. We calculate the average selling price by taking the total dollar value of all homes sold in that month and dividing it by the number of homes sold, to get the average price. The lower two lines of numbers show the number of homes sold in each month. The graph gives you a visual picture of the data in the table, and makes it easier to see trends and comparisons. In the graph above, the green and blue vertical bars illustrate the average selling price in the month that is labeled at the bottom horizontal axis, with the green bars representing the year from September 1, 2012 to August 31. 2013, and the blue bars the year from September 1, 2013 to August 31, 2014. The red and black horizontal lines cutting across the bars represent the number of homes sold in a month in those same two years, with the black bar being the 2012-2013 year, and the red bar the 2013-2014 year.
Looking at the data table and graph, we see:
- That in every month of the 2013-2014 year, the average selling price, represented by the blue bars, was higher than in the corresponding month of the prior year, represented by the green bars.
- The monthly average price in February 2014 was almost $30,000 below the monthly average price in January 2014, and was only about $5,000 higher than in February of 2013. This dip in pricing was obviously an anomaly because the monthly average price in March 2014 was back up to almost the January 2014 level, and stayed up in the months thereafter.
- There is an obvious plateau in monthly average prices from May through August 2014, with prices in a range from $193,277 (June) to $195,074 (July). Considering that average monthly prices were about $55,000 below this level in September and October of 2013, this is not a bad price level for a plateau.
- The number of homes sold in one month fell to a low of 99 homes (February 2014) and reached a high of 174 homes (August 2013).
- The two lines illustrating the number of homes sold monthly demonstrates almost a purely seasonal pattern. We generally expect the number of sales to decline in the winter months, and to rise in the spring and summer of the year.
- The total homes sold in each year was 1,618 in the 2012-2013 year, and 1,609 in the 2013-2014 year. This is obviously a very consistent level of sales for the two periods.
We believe the consistent number of sales in Hemet over the past two years and the substantial rise in prices are both attributable to the generally lower cost of housing in Hemet, and the perception of value received for the price paid. Because Hemet is seeing a number of attractive new developments and the desire of buyers to find value, we anticipate that sales in Hemet should remain solid for the foreseeable future.
If you need pointers on how to read data tables and graphs, please see the paragraph above under the graph for Hemet.
The data table and graph reveal that:
- Prices in the 2013-2014 year, represented by the blue bars, are consistently, and in some cases substantially, higher than the corresponding month in the 2012-2013 year, represented by the green bars.
- Though there is some variation in monthly average prices from month to month, the monthly average prices in the 2013-2014 year are within a range from $180,915 (April 2014) to $198,940 (July 2014). The dip in April was probably the result of a mix of sales more heavily weighted toward lower priced homes.
- Average monthly prices from May through August 2014 were all above $190,000. This bears watching since it could indicate a trend toward slightly higher average monthly prices.
- Though monthly homes sold are a bit higher than some of the other cities we’ve reviewed (Wildomar, Winchester) they are not as high as the monthly sales in Temecula or Murrieta. A smaller number of sales can lead to more pricing volatility, based on the mix of sales.
- February 2014 had the lowest number of sales with 34, while May and August 2013 were tied for highest number of sales with 74 each month.
- Homes sold in the 2012-2013 year totaled 685, while the total for the 2013-2014 year declined to 631 homes, a drop of 54 homes or nearly 8%.
Like Hemet, San Jacinto remains one of the most affordable communities in Southwest Riverside County. We believe it will continue to appeal to buyers looking for attractive homes in nice neighborhoods that are available for prices that represent good values.
© September 2014 Terry & Kathy Slavin All rights reserved.