September 17, 2014
Today, as we continue to work our way through the market updates for the nine cities that we focus on in Southwest Riverside County, we’ll look at the cities of Wildomar and Winchester.
If you’ve been reading all of the comments on each of the cities so far, this section isn’t necessary for you to read again, because it’s a repeat of the paragraph on how to read a graph. I repeat it in each blog, by the way, because I’m assuming that most readers are interested only (or mostly) in their own city, and don’t read the blogs on the other cities in detail. The data table contains just four lines of numbers. The top two lines are the average selling price of all the homes that sold in Wildomar during a particular month in one of two consecutive years. We calculate the average selling price by taking the total dollar value of all homes sold in that month and dividing it by the number of homes sold, to get the average price. The lower two lines of numbers show the number of homes sold in each month. The graph gives you a visual picture of the data in the table, and makes it easier to see trends and comparisons. In the graph above, the green and blue vertical bars illustrate the average selling price in the month that is labeled at the bottom horizontal axis, with the green bars representing the year from September 1, 2012 to August 31. 2013, and the blue bars the year from September 1, 2013 to August 31, 2014. The red and black horizontal lines cutting across the bars represent the number of homes sold in a month in those same two years, with the black bar being the 2012-2013 year, and the red bar the 2013-2014 year.
One of the first things we notice about the Wildomar data table is that far fewer homes have sold in Wildomar in the last couple of years than in the other three cities we’ve reviewed so far. (The City of Wildomar, which was only incorporated in July of 2008, has a population of about 30,000, much smaller than the neighboring cities of Temecula, Murrieta and Menifee.) You can see the effects of the lower number of sales in the choppiness of the lines illustrating the number of homes sold in the graph. This will also mean that a couple of sales could have a large impact on the average selling price in any one month.
The data table and graph illustrate some interesting points:
- Consistent with the graphs for the other cities, the blue bar for each month’s average price in the 2013-2014 year is higher than the green bar for the same month in the prior year.
- The price variation month to month was greatest in the five months from September through January. Thereafter it becomes choppier (partly because of the smaller number of homes sold) and there is almost no difference in prices from year-to-year in both June and August. Again, this indicates a possible slowing in price appreciation.
- Looking at the green bars in the graph, there is a solid increase in prices from September 2012 through August 2013.
- Looking at the blue bars, however, there is some increase in prices, but starting with December 2013, the average monthly price begins to trade within a range of $306,818 (January 2014) to $338,875 (July 2014), with seven of the nine months (from December through August) in a range from $312,000 to $321,000. Prices have remained strong, but they are not now growing rapidly.
- The two lines representing the number of homes sold are both choppy. In the 2012-2013 year, a total of 406 homes sold, while in the 2013-2014 year, a total of 331 homes sold, a decline of 75 sales from the prior year. It may not seem like a large difference, but it means that about 18.5% fewer homes sold in the last 12 months than in the prior 12 months.
- In June 2014, 39 homes sold and in August 2014, 40 homes sold. In the prior year there were three months with sales of 40 or more homes.
- If we’re looking for trends, we’d have to say that price appreciation seems to have slowed quite a bit. The number of sales has been somewhat volatile, so we’ll need to continue monitoring to see if sales have actually picked up – a new trend – or if the two recent months of higher sales were anomalies.
Technically, Winchester is not a city, as are Temecula, Murrieta, Widomar, etc. For the purposes of this blog, however, we think of Winchester of as zip code 92596, and it covers a large area that includes quite a bit of undeveloped land. It also includes a large portion of French Valley.
If you need some pointers on reading data tables and graphs, please look at the paragraph above under the graph for Wildomar.
Looking at the data table and graph for Winchester, we see a familiar pattern:
- Prices for the 2013-2014 year, represented by the blue bars, are higher in every month than prices in the 2012-2013 year, represented by the green bars.
- The price differences between the blue and green bars in the months from September 2013 through March 2014 are significant. There are still price differences from April through Augusts 2014 compared to the same months in the prior year, but they aren’t as large as in the months earlier in the period. This is another indication that price appreciation has slowed.
- We seem to have hit a price plateau in Winchester, as in most other cities. The highest average monthly price in the two years was $344,576 (March 2014). June and July 2014 also had average prices above $340,000, but no other monthly average prices have reached that level.
- In the 12 months from September 2013 through August 2014, eight months have had prices that ranged from the low $320,000s to the mid $330,000s. This appears to be the range where prices have leveled off, at least for the most part.
- March 2013 saw the highest number of homes sold at 51. September 2012 and February 2014 tied with the lowest number of sales at 21.
- In the September 2012-August 2013 year, 468 homes sold in Winchester, compared to 413 in the 2013-2014 year. The decline of 55 sales equals a decline of 11.8%.
- The trends here resemble the trends in other areas – average prices inconsistent from month to month, but holding up well. Slower price appreciation and fewer sales in the most recent months.
In our next blog, we’ll review pricing and sales trends in Lake Elsinore and Canyon Lake.
© September 2014 Terry & Kathy Slavin All rights reserved.